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BUY SAKARI, Moving up fast & furious 2 May 2012

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  #1  
Old 02-05-2012, 09:55 AM
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Default BUY SAKARI, Moving up fast & furious 2 May 2012

Last Retrieved on Wed, May 02 2012 at 09:54 AM

Price Trades Volume Sold to Buyer Mid Bought from Seller
1.940 7 50,000 50,000 0 0
1.945 53 157,000 29,000 0 128,000
1.950 43 154,000 30,000 0 124,000
1.955 74 347,000 0 0 347,000
1.960 19 71,000 15,000 0 56,000
1.965 42 162,000 38,000 0 124,000
1.970 23 126,000 10,000 0 116,000
1.975 19 47,000 3,000 0 44,000
1.980 12 41,000 11,000 0 30,000
1.985 35 119,000 32,000 0 87,000
1.990 42 127,000 16,000 0 111,000
1.995 16 58,000 12,000 0 46,000
2.000 12 57,000 0 0 57,000
2.010 38 192,000 75,000 0 117,000
2.020 66 431,000 116,000 0 315,000
2.030 49 350,000 219,000 0 131,000
2.040 21 101,000 17,000 0 84,000
TOTAL 571 2,590,000 673,000 0 1,917,000


Weighted Avg Price : 1.9894 Avg Trade Size : 4,535.902 Spread/Price Ratio : 0.0099
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  #2  
Old 02-05-2012, 11:53 AM
bluetooth bluetooth is offline
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Sakari Resources: S$1.97 BUY (TP: S$2.50)

Expect progressively better results

Within expectations, expect improved performance in coming quarters. 1Q12
PATMI of US$14m (-66% YoY, -80% QoQ) came in within our expectations and
accounted for 8% of our full year estimate. Weak earnings were mainly due
to lower production and higher costs from Jembayan, coupled with declining
coal prices. We believe the market has largely priced-in a weaker 1H12 for
SAR and the counter looks attractive to accumulate at current levels.
Maintain BUY, with TP of S$2.50 based on 12.8x FY12 P/E.

Jembayan to perform better in 2H12. Jembayan brought forward the
developments of two new pits during 1Q12, instead of during 2H12, and this
resulted in a 40% YoY dip in 1Q12 production to 1.5m tonnes, while cash
costs rose 40% YoY to US$67.5/tonne. Coupled with declining coal prices
(Newcastle coal prices are down 9% YTD to US$102/MT), this inevitably
affected profits negatively. We remain positive on management’s strategy to
ensure added capacity for an expected market recovery later in the year,
with Jembayan positioned to benefit from expected higher coal prices,
higher volumes, and lower costs.

Sebuku steady as she goes. 1Q12 production grew 32% YoY to 519k tonnes,
while cash costs fell a marginal 1% to US$42.5/tonne. As expected,
production levels were not near the stellar 758k tonnes recorded in 4Q11.
However, we are expecting production to pick up, and with management
lifting its FY12 Sebuku production target to not less than 2.5m tonnes, we
see potential upside risks to our FY12 Sebuku production forecast of 2.5m
tonnes.

Valuations attractive, negatives priced in. SAR remains attractive trading
at 10x FY12 P/E with dividend yield of 5.9%. Our TP of S$2.50 is based on
12.8x FY12 P/E, which is a 27% premium to SAR’s peers. Downside risks to
our call include lower than expected coal production and adverse macro
conditions leading to a down trend in coal prices
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  #3  
Old 02-05-2012, 11:53 AM
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OCBC research
Sakari Resources: Poor 1Q12 results; improvement expected
Sakari Resources Limited (SRL) reported 1Q12 revenue slumping 16% YoY to US$188.8m, or just 17% of our full-year forecast, mainly due to sharply lower coal production volume. Net profit tumbled 65% YoY to US$14.5m, meeting just 7% of our FY12 estimate. But management notes that there were several operational factors which affect its performance and things should start to normalise over the year. As such, it remains relatively confident that it can post a recovery from 2Q12 onwards. But we still need to cut our FY12 estimates for revenue by 11% and earnings by 41% (FY13 by 4% and 17% respectively). This in turn lowers our DCF-based fair value to S$2.39. But in view of the likely improvement from 2Q12 onwards, we maintain our BUY rating. (Carey Wong)
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